Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,510,151$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,383,655.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,383,655.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,539$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,930.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(118,930.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,705,304$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,878$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,244.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(103,244.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,576$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,480.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,480.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,857$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $212,802$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322,686.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 90.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322,686.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,381$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(665 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,617.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.0)}}\) (asimptote \(41,617.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,700$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,658$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{247,047.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 171.4)}}\) (asimptote \(247,047.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $592$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(47.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{675.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 78.6)}}\) (asimptote \(675.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,696$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,619$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,630.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 84.4)}}\) (asimptote \(39,630.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $718$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{686.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(686.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,235$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,007$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $479$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(24.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{955.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.4)}}\) (asimptote \(955.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,761$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,397$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,530.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 92.8)}}\) (asimptote \(27,530.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $706$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 75.6)}}\) (asimptote \(923.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,568$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,727$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(165 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,237.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 84.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,237.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $143$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.21 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,137$ on 2020-06-27
